Wednesday, September 15, 2010

More on Silver

There is tremendous excitement regarding the breakout in Silver. I can certainly see why. It has been a long time coming and expectations are high.
But breakouts do not excite me. Not to buy anyway. Unfortunately buy high sell higher principle never got to me.
For me something has to be hated for me to own it. That is a necessary criteria although not sufficient by itself.
Let us start with my very first blog post
http://ispeakofpeak.blogspot.com/2008/12/searching-for-perfect-bottomdow-15000.html
Stocks were hated, I thought they were cheap. While the deflationists were pounding their chests about a complete collapse, I felt that their victory would be short lived. I took some serious flak for it but most stocks bottomed around the time of that post (although the S and P moved lower in March 2009).
I despised Gold versus Stocks when everyone was doing the opposite.
http://ispeakofpeak.blogspot.com/2009/02/gold-is-done-stick-fork-in-it.html
So being contrarian comes naturally to me. Does not always work out so wonderfully as those examples. Although buying Silver ETFs and $20 calls on the Comex (yeah I know it was supposed to be shut down when we all cashed in our chips...)
turned out to be the second greatest trade of my life, buying NG 2013 futures has cost me 10% so far and an equal amount in opportunity costs.
Perhaps Silver will make it on this run to $30 or more. Considering how little I have left, it will not make any difference to me. I am getting excited at how cheap Canadian Oil Sands Trust or for that matter Chesapeake Energy and Natural Gas are getting compared to Silver. In each case the dollars I got from selling Silver will buy at least 3 times as much of these three investments as I could in June and September 2008. Here is 1 example.
So if Hyperinflation/very high inflation is coming ( I do not think yet), then I rather own an under-owned over hated asset than Silver. May turn out to be a mistake. But I am making it.

4 comments:

The Mad Scientist said...

P.S I have not yet bought any of those investments I spoke about.

khalid said...

How's short Swissie trade going?
The large FX broker I use shows current (as of half to 1 hour ago) USD/CHF maked up 7.95% of open positions for all major currency pairs.

Long-Short ratio for USD/CHF is
71.08% long to 28.92% short

It was hovering about 75-6% long a few days after you posted on corn and swissie.

It seems sentiment is way too USD bullish, still.
Longs have curtailed positions since the USD/CHF spike yesterday, but I'd wait for a reduction of at least another 20 percentage points before contemplating shorting Swissie.
What say you?

The Mad Scientist said...

It is a small position for via Futures options i.e CHF puts. Forex sentiment may be skewed, however Futures sentiment seems overly bullish.

Anonymous said...

Hi Mad,

Why not express more of your trades via long term calls, especially for stuff like the oil drillers?