The performance of the "King" of Metals

Rising tides do indeed lift all boats. I had no idea to what extent the tide would rise.
Selling in a bull market is difficult and usually leads to sellers regret. I do not have any. I made many great trades in Gold and Silver. Luck has to run out sometime.
That said, I find it appalling how much praise goes to Gold.
Here is the story in a few charts of Gold's performance.
First against Copper.
Whoa! What a fantastic performance. Since I Identified the relative top in Gold in 2009, Gold has returned a whopping -50% versus the base metal Copper. King indeed!


Measured against Silver it is down about 27%. Not as bad but certainly a dismal performance.




Examining its performance against Palladium does not warm the heart either. Down 60%
!Good Gracious, what would Gold is money morons say.
And lastly in the metals group. Platinum. No appreciation or depreciation.



For all the hoopla attached to Gold it has not made a dent against Light sweet crude in the last 24 months.
This is a more recent chart as CORN ETF did not exist back in 2009, however Corn nearby futures were around $3.50 when I said Gold was done as Gold to Corn ratios were really out of whack. Gold has since then lost about 30% of its value against corn.

And lastly, a chart of how many ounces of Gold it takes to buy a house. Taking into account the appreciation of Gold and the depreciation of homes since June, I would say we are very close to the historic average. Since I see home prices going only further down in the US any further rise in Gold prices would make Gold relatively expensive to homes. Still the 1980's and 1930's extreme could be reached which would imply $2500 an ounce Gold.
All of this is to illustrate one point. Gold can either rise a lot nominally, or a lot relatively but not both. Anyone who insists on both is a complete moron. In 2008 to early 2009 Gold rose relatively but not much nominally. In early 2008 we were at $1000 and the same price was reached in early 2009 while the world collapsed. Today we have seen rapid nominal rise but no relative rise. Even against the stock market, and for all of Tyler Durden's rants ("today the stock market was down in the only currency that matters"), it has yet to exceed the 2009 high. It will eventually, I think, but the last 2 years have not exactly seen Gold do much. Relatively.
I think the time has now come for Gold to start rising relatively. But I doubt we will see huge nominal gains.

I have closed out most positions as this has been a difficult year. I am up around 6% and I rather close things out to have a positive year. This was the worst performance in 7 years of trading and I could have easily been up over 40% if I had not insisted on staying short the market. Painful lesson. That neutralized most of my spectacular gains in ZSILUS and CEF. We only have a few macro trade options which have the potential to deliver big, but considering how wrong I have been in the last 3 months, I am not holding my breath.