S an P 500 at 250?

Can the index go that low?
Impossible?

Let me explain my thinking.
Current estimates for the S & P 500 are around $100 of earnings.
I think by 2013-2014, a 20% decline in revenue is possible. With almost 50% of revenue coming from overseas, a 20% USD appreciation could by itself knock off 10% of revenues.
Certainly financial institution revenues are also highly suspect and a 30-40% decline there is quite feasible.
Overall, a recession with strong USD appreciation could knock 20% of revenues.

That would reduce earnings from $100 to $80.

Corporate profit margins are at historic highs. Even a mean reversion, which is certainly likely in a global recession would reduce earnings on those revenues by 50%. That would bring earnings to $40 per S an P 500 unit.

Stock market bottoms have gone as low as 5-6 times earnings. A 6.25 multiple on $40 would put the S and P 500 at 250.
Not my baseline projection but certainly more possible than most people think.