Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) has been a complete disaster. Their loss of their most productive mine coupled with a general contraction of multiples in the Gold sector has seen the stock move from $85 to $36 a loss of almost 60%.
The stock is really cheap here and I would not be surprised if someone stripped in and bought it out.
Talisman Energy (TLM) is trading at a price that gives $0 to its gas reserves. The current market cap is easily justifiable based on oil production/reserves alone (compare Crescent Point or Baytex Energy's enterprise value to Talisman and adjust for barrels of oil production).
I will be initiating positions tomorrow.
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Friday, January 6, 2012
S an P 500 at 250?
Can the index go that low?
Impossible?
Let me explain my thinking.
Current estimates for the S & P 500 are around $100 of earnings.
I think by 2013-2014, a 20% decline in revenue is possible. With almost 50% of revenue coming from overseas, a 20% USD appreciation could by itself knock off 10% of revenues.
Certainly financial institution revenues are also highly suspect and a 30-40% decline there is quite feasible.
Overall, a recession with strong USD appreciation could knock 20% of revenues.
That would reduce earnings from $100 to $80.
Corporate profit margins are at historic highs. Even a mean reversion, which is certainly likely in a global recession would reduce earnings on those revenues by 50%. That would bring earnings to $40 per S an P 500 unit.
Stock market bottoms have gone as low as 5-6 times earnings. A 6.25 multiple on $40 would put the S and P 500 at 250.
Not my baseline projection but certainly more possible than most people think.
Impossible?
Let me explain my thinking.
Current estimates for the S & P 500 are around $100 of earnings.
I think by 2013-2014, a 20% decline in revenue is possible. With almost 50% of revenue coming from overseas, a 20% USD appreciation could by itself knock off 10% of revenues.
Certainly financial institution revenues are also highly suspect and a 30-40% decline there is quite feasible.
Overall, a recession with strong USD appreciation could knock 20% of revenues.
That would reduce earnings from $100 to $80.
Corporate profit margins are at historic highs. Even a mean reversion, which is certainly likely in a global recession would reduce earnings on those revenues by 50%. That would bring earnings to $40 per S an P 500 unit.
Stock market bottoms have gone as low as 5-6 times earnings. A 6.25 multiple on $40 would put the S and P 500 at 250.
Not my baseline projection but certainly more possible than most people think.
Sunday, January 1, 2012
I am back !!!!!!!!!!!!! 2011 in review and looking ahead
Happy New Year to all!
We closed out the year up 6.32%. It was a extremely volatile year in which hedges paid off very well.
The best performers for the year in our portfolio were
Long
Dejour Energy up 45%
And that is it. That was the only non trading position that I made money on the long side.
Fortunately we were never net long at any point in the year.
Best Shorts
X -US steel down 56% from Entry
AMZN- Amazon down 22% from Entry
We also made money with Gold and Silver Shorts.
Almost 16% of total return came from selling calls and puts against our longs and shorts respectively.
Best ideas for 2012
1) Long CAD versus AUD.
As Australian Housing goes into terminal implosion along with China landing on its Derriere, we see oil and the Canadian economy outperforming base metals and the Australian economy.
2) Short Nucor (Steel is dying), Starbux , Macy's and Amazon (continues from 2011).
3) Long Several Oil producers/Short Oil.
4) Bullish on Gold in Yen terms after first quarter of 2012.
Select way out of the money Calls and Puts on some stocks/ETFs.
Year End Target for S and P - 600-800
We closed out the year up 6.32%. It was a extremely volatile year in which hedges paid off very well.
The best performers for the year in our portfolio were
Long
Dejour Energy up 45%
And that is it. That was the only non trading position that I made money on the long side.
Fortunately we were never net long at any point in the year.
Best Shorts
X -US steel down 56% from Entry
AMZN- Amazon down 22% from Entry
We also made money with Gold and Silver Shorts.
Almost 16% of total return came from selling calls and puts against our longs and shorts respectively.
Best ideas for 2012
1) Long CAD versus AUD.
As Australian Housing goes into terminal implosion along with China landing on its Derriere, we see oil and the Canadian economy outperforming base metals and the Australian economy.
2) Short Nucor (Steel is dying), Starbux , Macy's and Amazon (continues from 2011).
3) Long Several Oil producers/Short Oil.
4) Bullish on Gold in Yen terms after first quarter of 2012.
Select way out of the money Calls and Puts on some stocks/ETFs.
Year End Target for S and P - 600-800
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Crash Alert!!!!!!!!
Sentiment is at super extremes right now. I fear such a situation will correct itself most likely through a crash.
See below,
See below,
CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE Code-002602
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/21/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,518,419
COMMITMENTS
587,744 124,981 140,980 640,827 1012811 1369551 1278772 148,868 239,647
CHANGES FROM 12/14/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 28,403)
23,998 2,862 -5,966 11,459 31,193 29,491 28,089 -1,088 314
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
38.7 8.2 9.3 42.2 66.7 90.2 84.2 9.8 15.8
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 861)
278 118 174 212 389 560 631
All time high Net and Total Long positions for Speculators.
SOYBEANS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE Code-005602
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/21/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) OPEN INTEREST: 660,863
COMMITMENTS
257,558 41,529 86,829 258,352 445,154 602,739 573,512 58,124 87,351
CHANGES FROM 12/14/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 17,690)
8,493 4,063 4,175 7,047 10,739 19,715 18,977 -2,025 -1,287
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
39.0 6.3 13.1 39.1 67.4 91.2 86.8 8.8 13.2
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 590)
225 89 173 117 209 438 423
A nice 6.5 to 1 ratio.
NASDAQ-100 STOCK INDEX (MINI) - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-209742
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/21/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(NASDAQ 100 STOCK INDEX X $20) OPEN INTEREST: 333,555
COMMITMENTS
124,509 37,197 1,220 182,038 280,500 307,767 318,917 25,788 14,638
CHANGES FROM 12/14/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -187,192)
5,060 -51,595 -8,820 -170,951 -103,265 -174,711 -163,680 -12,481 -23,512
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
37.3 11.2 0.4 54.6 84.1 92.3 95.6 7.7 4.4
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 219)
71 25 8 69 69 143 99
Capitulation? See the large reduction in shorts this week.
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-232741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/21/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF AUD 100,000) OPEN INTEREST: 115,007
COMMITMENTS
69,875 9,325 117 14,331 93,481 84,323 102,923 30,684 12,084
CHANGES FROM 12/14/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 1,423)
7,205 433 -33 -6,695 332 477 732 946 691
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
60.8 8.1 0.1 12.5 81.3 73.3 89.5 26.7 10.5
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 66)
30 11 1 10 19 41 30
7:1 Longs to shorts.
E-MINI MSCI EMERGING MARKETS - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-244742
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/21/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(MSCI INDEX X $50) OPEN INTEREST: 38,318
COMMITMENTS
13,775 1,920 6 17,379 34,546 31,160 36,472 7,158 1,846
CHANGES FROM 12/14/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -8,313)
-482 239 6 -3,134 -3,486 -3,610 -3,241 -4,703 -5,072
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
35.9 5.0 0.0 45.4 90.2 81.3 95.2 18.7 4.8
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 49)
14 3 1 20 18 35 21
Same here.
GOLD - COMMODITY EXCHANGE INC. Code-088691
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/21/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 582,133
COMMITMENTS
251,722 45,298 67,525 194,090 445,898 513,337 558,721 68,796 23,412
CHANGES FROM 12/14/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -12,519)
-8,195 5,576 -10,045 9,354 -6,973 -8,886 -11,442 -3,633 -1,077
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
43.2 7.8 11.6 33.3 76.6 88.2 96.0 11.8 4.0
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 339)
203 59 54 50 50 277 142
A bit healthier than last week but still very extended.
PALLADIUM - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-075651
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/21/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 100 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 22,590
COMMITMENTS
16,446 2,014 335 3,012 19,686 19,793 22,035 2,797 555
CHANGES FROM 12/14/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -534)
-259 -161 97 -408 -423 -570 -487 36 -47
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
72.8 8.9 1.5 13.3 87.1 87.6 97.5 12.4 2.5
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 148)
82 16 8 20 33 108 54
PLATINUM - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-076651
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/21/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 50 TROY OUNCES) OPEN INTEREST: 37,473
COMMITMENTS
24,785 1,491 152 7,106 34,433 32,043 36,076 5,430 1,397
CHANGES FROM 12/14/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 953)
301 -359 79 611 1,315 991 1,035 -38 -82
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
66.1 4.0 0.4 19.0 91.9 85.5 96.3 14.5 3.7
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 133)
79 11 4 15 34 95 49
Stunning ratios for both Palladium and Platinum.
CRUDE OIL, LIGHT SWEET - NEW YORK MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-067651
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 12/21/10 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF 1,000 BARRELS) OPEN INTEREST: 1,369,544
COMMITMENTS
321,441 161,027 301,255 663,325 854,606 1286021 1316888 83,523 52,656
CHANGES FROM 12/14/10 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -11,235)
-7,672 -5,301 -18,265 21,843 21,441 -4,094 -2,125 -7,141 -9,110
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
23.5 11.8 22.0 48.4 62.4 93.9 96.2 6.1 3.8
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 328)
122 86 134 88 96 282 257
In fact crude oil seems modest compared to the rest.
Coupled with lowest short interest, lowest VIX and highest AAII sentiment, this could prove nasty.
I am risking a small amount in way out of the money puts for February and March for some stocks. Other than that, overall I am net short about 20% of my portfolio.
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Revisiting my best call ever and how it applies to today
Time May 2007.
Since predicting $100 plus oil from early 2005, it looked like I was getting most things right. I had spectacular gains in most oil stocks/options. My Dec 2010 85/100 Crude Oil Calls were doing great.
I had made even more gains in Oil refiners. Valero and Tesero options had been my favourite plays. At that point I permanently turned bearish on Refiners. To me this was the easiest call in history of investing, yet no one and I mean no one saw it coming. The analysis was simple, oil production was peaking out or close to peaking out. Refinery additions were coming in fast and furious. In such an environment how could the crack-spread i.e the difference between oil products and oil rise? Yet I counted no less than 5 "top" newsletters recommending them because of the Peak Oil Thesis. A week after I sold my positions and ran my thoughts by my intellectually superior friend Greg Jeffers (we discussed the idea of long Ex and Production companies short Refiners) I wrote this for www.financialsense.com
http://www.financialsensearchive.com/fsu/editorials/lalani/2007/0531.html
The relevant portion of that article
I was not able to get a start date graph from the day of my article, but you can observe it clearly on the chart above.
Since May 31st 2007, XLE is virtually unchanged whereas both Valero and Tesero are down about 65% from May 2007. Mind you, XLE has a huge refining component as well. An Exploration and Production, oil only companies index ( if there was one) would have done even better in this trade.
Long term calls rarely work out this well. But I believe my long term call on Steel versus Oil will work out at least this well over next few years.
In fact the fundamentals for this call are even better than the refiner-oil stocks spread.
The idiot analysts along with the steel companies have extrapolated China and India's double digit demand growth for steel and projected it out to 2020. More importantly they have already put in the capacity for it. Similar to refiners they are facing a higher raw material cost (iron ore, energy inputs and coal), however unlike the refiners they are already producing at low 73% of world capacity and are not profitable. China's property bubble is on the verge of bursting and another year of even 3% world GDP growth could push oil prices high enough to cause a recession. Also the supply demand for Iron ore looks a lot more bullish compared to that for steel, ensuring margin pressure for the foreseeable future.
I am short X, AKS, NUE, STLD with the largest weighting in X. I am long OIH, DO, ZAR-UN.to, ENI-Un.to and RVT in equal amounts against this basket.
I am currently down 2% on this trade but I expect it will produce very rich returns in 2011-2012.
Since predicting $100 plus oil from early 2005, it looked like I was getting most things right. I had spectacular gains in most oil stocks/options. My Dec 2010 85/100 Crude Oil Calls were doing great.
I had made even more gains in Oil refiners. Valero and Tesero options had been my favourite plays. At that point I permanently turned bearish on Refiners. To me this was the easiest call in history of investing, yet no one and I mean no one saw it coming. The analysis was simple, oil production was peaking out or close to peaking out. Refinery additions were coming in fast and furious. In such an environment how could the crack-spread i.e the difference between oil products and oil rise? Yet I counted no less than 5 "top" newsletters recommending them because of the Peak Oil Thesis. A week after I sold my positions and ran my thoughts by my intellectually superior friend Greg Jeffers (we discussed the idea of long Ex and Production companies short Refiners) I wrote this for www.financialsense.com
http://www.financialsensearchive.com/fsu/editorials/lalani/2007/0531.html
The relevant portion of that article
Secondly, the reason we have not built any refineries in this country for about 30 years has a lot to do with the fact that it is an extremely expensive capital intensive process and the NIMBY syndrome.
But above and beyond that there is another reason. Right now refining capacity and crude supply are finely balanced. In 10 years refining capacity (in my opinion) will exceed oil supplies by 5-7 million barrels per day even if we do not build another refinery anywhere. I really do not see the Valeros and Teseros making record profits when all the refineries are clamoring for the same crude. So why invest?
And the end result.
I was not able to get a start date graph from the day of my article, but you can observe it clearly on the chart above.
Since May 31st 2007, XLE is virtually unchanged whereas both Valero and Tesero are down about 65% from May 2007. Mind you, XLE has a huge refining component as well. An Exploration and Production, oil only companies index ( if there was one) would have done even better in this trade.
Long term calls rarely work out this well. But I believe my long term call on Steel versus Oil will work out at least this well over next few years.
In fact the fundamentals for this call are even better than the refiner-oil stocks spread.
The idiot analysts along with the steel companies have extrapolated China and India's double digit demand growth for steel and projected it out to 2020. More importantly they have already put in the capacity for it. Similar to refiners they are facing a higher raw material cost (iron ore, energy inputs and coal), however unlike the refiners they are already producing at low 73% of world capacity and are not profitable. China's property bubble is on the verge of bursting and another year of even 3% world GDP growth could push oil prices high enough to cause a recession. Also the supply demand for Iron ore looks a lot more bullish compared to that for steel, ensuring margin pressure for the foreseeable future.
I am short X, AKS, NUE, STLD with the largest weighting in X. I am long OIH, DO, ZAR-UN.to, ENI-Un.to and RVT in equal amounts against this basket.
I am currently down 2% on this trade but I expect it will produce very rich returns in 2011-2012.
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Best Idea for 2011
2010 has continued to prove one of the most irritating years in my investment career. Still I am encouraged by the market going completely irrational. Such things never last forever. After a few weeks of contemplation I have come up with what I think will be a great trade idea for 2011.
Long Oil and Oil Service stocks/Short Steel Stocks.
Considering the run up the market has had I would never venture on a straight long position in Oil related stocks. Steel Stocks have extremely high beta and a plain short is not particularly appealing. Options 1 year or more out are incredibly expensive and not so alluring.
While the fringe lunatics like Illargi, Stoneleigh and Prechter see a complete collapse of our Ponzi scheme, I am a bit more sanguine. That said, I see the road that lies ahead of us as painful to say the least. The thing I am most certain about is that World Oil excess capacity is far, far less than World Steel production capacity. Currently even according to most optimists we have no more than 2-3 Million barrel/day of excess oil production capacity. My sense is that it is no more than 1.5 Million barrels/day. We are hence at 98% capacity or higher.
World Steel Production is currently running at around 74%. With all the new capacity scheduled to come online, we are looking at a drop to below 70% if demand stays constant. Even in the case of improving demand we will not see the giddy days of 80% plus simply because of China's huge investment in this space. China's Steel producing capacity is expanding and expanding quite rapidly. In case of a total China collapse (not my base scenario) oil demand could drop 3-6% for a year at worst, whereas Steel demand could drop 20-30 % and utilization capacity would go to the low 60's with significant pain for the Steel industry. Even in such a case oil stocks and specially oil service stocks should have good earnings at around $50/barrel.
Comparing the stocks in the 2 groups leads to a very interesting picture. Most oil and oil service stocks are trading at single digit multiples of earnings if oil remains above $80/barrel. At current prices almost all domestic Steel stocks will make significant losses in 2011. That is correct, almost none will make a profit. So you have oil stocks priced for 30% lower prices, and Steel stocks priced for 30% higher steel prices. Based on capacity utilization, the market is clearly wrong. I shorted some US Steel (X) with a equal long position in Energy Income Fund (ENI.UN..which trades at a nice 15% discount). I will be adding more positions in this over the coming month. I will pick a basket of stocks in the Steel industry as the Steel ETF (SLX) contains too many base metal producers to be a good proxy.
Long Oil and Oil Service stocks/Short Steel Stocks.
Considering the run up the market has had I would never venture on a straight long position in Oil related stocks. Steel Stocks have extremely high beta and a plain short is not particularly appealing. Options 1 year or more out are incredibly expensive and not so alluring.
While the fringe lunatics like Illargi, Stoneleigh and Prechter see a complete collapse of our Ponzi scheme, I am a bit more sanguine. That said, I see the road that lies ahead of us as painful to say the least. The thing I am most certain about is that World Oil excess capacity is far, far less than World Steel production capacity. Currently even according to most optimists we have no more than 2-3 Million barrel/day of excess oil production capacity. My sense is that it is no more than 1.5 Million barrels/day. We are hence at 98% capacity or higher.
World Steel Production is currently running at around 74%. With all the new capacity scheduled to come online, we are looking at a drop to below 70% if demand stays constant. Even in the case of improving demand we will not see the giddy days of 80% plus simply because of China's huge investment in this space. China's Steel producing capacity is expanding and expanding quite rapidly. In case of a total China collapse (not my base scenario) oil demand could drop 3-6% for a year at worst, whereas Steel demand could drop 20-30 % and utilization capacity would go to the low 60's with significant pain for the Steel industry. Even in such a case oil stocks and specially oil service stocks should have good earnings at around $50/barrel.
Comparing the stocks in the 2 groups leads to a very interesting picture. Most oil and oil service stocks are trading at single digit multiples of earnings if oil remains above $80/barrel. At current prices almost all domestic Steel stocks will make significant losses in 2011. That is correct, almost none will make a profit. So you have oil stocks priced for 30% lower prices, and Steel stocks priced for 30% higher steel prices. Based on capacity utilization, the market is clearly wrong. I shorted some US Steel (X) with a equal long position in Energy Income Fund (ENI.UN..which trades at a nice 15% discount). I will be adding more positions in this over the coming month. I will pick a basket of stocks in the Steel industry as the Steel ETF (SLX) contains too many base metal producers to be a good proxy.
Thursday, November 25, 2010
High Probability of a major decline for the metals
I think this will turn into a full scale rout. Still considering what Short/Put position would give the best risk adjusted return in this environment. I think the declines will be quite strong, regardless of the current belief that Gold is decoupling from the US dollar.
There are many graphs comparing the Gold bull market to the NASDAQ bull market of the 1990's.
Gold's bull seems small in comparison. However there are markets that topped at much earlier levels. Take the US housing market. Overall we got a 100% gain in US real estate , which in relation to wage growth made US housing a bubble. Here we have a 400% plus appreciation from the bottom, certainly enough to make an argument that the bull run is over.
For now I am in the intermediate decline camp.
There are many graphs comparing the Gold bull market to the NASDAQ bull market of the 1990's.
Gold's bull seems small in comparison. However there are markets that topped at much earlier levels. Take the US housing market. Overall we got a 100% gain in US real estate , which in relation to wage growth made US housing a bubble. Here we have a 400% plus appreciation from the bottom, certainly enough to make an argument that the bull run is over.
For now I am in the intermediate decline camp.
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